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EABCN/CEPR Discussion Papers

EABCN has inaugurated a Discussion Paper series in collaboration with CEPR. The purpose of Discussion papers is to disseminate research quickly in order to generate comment and suggestions for revision or improvement. Only papers presented at EABCN conferences or workshops are considered for this series. Qualifying authors should submit their papers to the EABCN Secretariat. The final choice of which papers are to be included in this series is made by the Scientific Committee.

To assist the feedback of comments and suggestions to the author, there is an online mail facility for each paper.

Research Papers

Technology Shocks: Novel Implications for International Business Cycles
Series Number:
EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 56/2010
Authors:
Andrea Raffo Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Publication Date
August 15, 2010
JEL code(s)
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F32 Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 Open Economy Macroeconomics
Keywords
Backus-Smith puzzle, international business cycles, investment-specific technology shocks
International Business Cycle Spillovers
Series Number:
EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 53/2010
Authors:
Kamil Yilmaz Koc University
Publication Date
August 1, 2010
JEL code(s)
C32 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F41 Open Economy Macroeconomics
Keywords
business cycles, cointegration, industrial production, spillovers, unit roots, variance decomposition, vector autoregression
Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis
Series Number:
EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 54/2010
Authors:
Emine Boz International Monetary Fund
Enrique Mendoza
Publication Date
August 1, 2010
JEL code(s)
D82 Asymmetric and Private Information
E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F41 Open Economy Macroeconomics
Keywords
asset prices, credit crisis, financial innovation, Fisherian deflation, imperfect information, learning
Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime-switching Approach
Series Number:
EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 55/2010
Authors:
Sumru Altug Koc University
Melike Bildirici Yildiz Teknik Universitesi, Istanbul
Publication Date
August 1, 2010
JEL code(s)
C32 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation
Keywords
business cycles, Markov switching approach, nonparametric modeling, turning point analysis
Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle
Series Number:
EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 52/2010
Authors:
Fabio Milani Department of Economics, Princeton
Publication Date
March 9, 2010
JEL code(s)
E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 Monetary Policy
E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Keywords
behavioral explanations of the business cycle, constant-gain learning, DSGE estimation with survey expectations, expectation formation, expectation shocks and waves of optimism and pessimism
Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty
Series Number:
EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 51/2010
Authors:
Anthony Garratt Birkbeck College, University of London
James Mitchell National Institute of Economic and Social Research (London)
Shaun Vahey
Publication Date
March 3, 2010
JEL code(s)
C32 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models
C53 Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E37 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation
Keywords
density combination, ensemble forecasting, output gap uncertainty and VAR models
An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area
Series Number:
EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 50/2010
Authors:
Domenico Giannone ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles
Jérôme Henry European Central Bank
Magdalena Lalik
Michele Modugno European Center of advanced studies in economics and statistics (ECARES)
Publication Date
January 21, 2010
JEL code(s)
C01 Econometrics
C82 Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Keywords
database, Euro area, real-time and revisions
Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence Based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach
Series Number:
ECB Working Paper No 1118
Authors:
Jacopo Cimadomo European Central Bank
Publication Date
November 1, 2009
JEL code(s)
E62 Fiscal Policy
Keywords
cyclical sensitivity, Discretionary fiscal policies, ESCB disaggregated framework, government revenues, legislation changes, narrative approach
A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004
Series Number:
EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 49/2009
Authors:
Szilard Benk Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Max Gillman Cardiff Business School
Michal Kejak CERGE-EI
Publication Date
November 1, 2009
JEL code(s)
E13 General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Keywords
business cycle, credit shocks, velocity and volatility
A Defence of the FOMC
Series Number:
EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 47/2009
Authors:
Martin Ellison University of Oxford
Thomas Sargent New York University and Hoover Institution
Publication Date
October 1, 2009
JEL code(s)
C53 Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E52 Monetary Policy
E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Keywords
forecasting, monetary policy, robustness