D84

Expectations; Speculations

The Additional Information Content of Survey Data. Evidence from Second Moments

JEL codes: 
C53, D83, D84
Version Date: 
Dec 2012
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

Disagreement across forecasters is a well-established fact as widespread is the use of forecasting errors as a proxy of uncertainty.

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Booms and Busts in Asset Prices

JEL codes: 
D84, G12
Version Date: 
Jan 2010
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

We show how low-frequency boom and bust cycles in asset prices can emerge from Bayesian learning by investors. Investors rationally maximize infinite horizon utility but hold subjective priors about the asset return process that we allow to differ infinitesimally from the rational expectations prior.

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