E27

Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation

Evaluating forecasts of a vector of variables: a German forecasting competition

JEL codes: 
C53, E27, E37
Version Date: 
Jul 2014
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

In this paper we present an evaluation of forecasts of a vector of variables of the German economy made by different institutions. Our method permits one to evaluate the forecasts for each year and then if one is interested to combine the years.

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Modelling euro area GDP growth with dynamic factor models

JEL codes: 
E27
Version Date: 
Oct 2012
Abstract: 

Using structural models to estimate and forecast quarterly GDP conditional on a large
number of economic indicators raises parsimony problems, such as the need to define many
identification restrictions and also to deal with very sparse asymptotic distributions of the
coefficients. Factor models have the role to fill this gap in macroeconomic modelling. The

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