E44

Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

Does Easing Monetary Policy Increase Financial Instability?

JEL codes: 
E44, E52, E61
Version Date: 
Jan 2013
Abstract: 

We develop a model featuring both a macroeconomic and a financial stability objective that speaks to the interaction between monetary and macro-prudential policies.

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Contagion or Flight-to-Quality Phenomena in Stock and Bond Returns

JEL codes: 
C32, E44, G10
Version Date: 
Feb 2012
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

In this paper, I study the correlation between stock and bond returns. We can define flight-to-quality from stocks to bonds as the decrease in the correlation between the two assets in falling stock markets periods (bear state), since the two assets returns move in the opposite direction.

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GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries

JEL codes: 
C53, E43, E44, E52
Version Date: 
Aug 2010
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the U.K.). The data used range from 1991:Q1 to 2009:Q1.

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Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

JEL codes: 
C32, E30, E44, E51, E52
Version Date: 
Apr 2011
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

I estimate the dynamic effects of respectively traditional interest rate
innovations and unconventional monetary policy actions on the Euro area
economy. The results show that the Eurosystem can stimulate the economy
beyond the policy rate by increasing the size of its balance sheet. The ultimate
consequences on output and consumer prices are however more sluggish

Credit Risk and Disaster Risk

JEL codes: 
E32, E44, G12
Version Date: 
Jan 2011
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

return on a well-diversified portfolio of corporate bonds is close to zero. In contrast, the empirical finance literature documents large and time-varying risk premia in the corporate bond market (the "credit spread puzzle"). This paper introduces a parsimonious real business cycle model where firms issue defaultable debt and equity to finance investment.

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Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis

JEL codes: 
D82, E44, F41
Version Date: 
Jul 2010
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

Uncertainty about the riskiness of a new financial environment was an important factor behind the U.S. credit crisis. We show that a boom-bust cycle in debt, asset prices and consumption characterizes the equilibrium dynamics of a model with a collateral constraint in which agents learn "by observation" the true riskiness of the new environment.

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A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004

JEL codes: 
E13, E32, E44
Version Date: 
Oct 2009
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

The paper shows that US GDP velocity of M1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1.25% per year upward trend, during the 1919-2004 period. It explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a DSGE model and annual time series data (Ingram et al., 1994).

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What does a financial system say about future economic growth?

JEL codes: 
E43, E44, G12
Version Date: 
Dec 2008
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

In many research studies it is argued that it is possible to extract useful information about future economic growth from the performance of financial markets.

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