forecasting GDP

Yield curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework

JEL codes: 
E30, E39
Version Date: 
Nov 2013
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

In this paper, we investigate the forecasting ability of the yield curve in terms of the
U.S. real GDP cycle. More specifically, within a Machine Learning (ML) framework,
we use data from a variety of short (treasury bills) and long term interest rates (bonds)
for the period from 1976:Q3 to 2011:Q4 in conjunction with the real GDP for the

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Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy

JEL codes: 
C32, E37
Version Date: 
Sep 2005
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

This paper describes a method for calculating daily real-time estimates of the current state of the US economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled US macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other complications in the data.

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