Members Research Papers

Currency Union, Free Trade Areas, and Business Cycle Synchronization

Authors:	Pierangelo De Pace Pomona College
Publication Date	December 5, 2010
JEL code(s)	C12 Hypothesis Testing C13 Estimation C14 Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods C15 Simulation Methods C32 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles F15 Economic Integration
Keywords	Bootstrap Methods, Cycle Synchronization, Hypothesis Testing

An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area

Series Number:	EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 50/2010
Authors:	Domenico Giannone ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles Jérôme Henry European Central Bank Magdalena Lalik Michele Modugno European Center of advanced studies in economics and statistics (ECARES)
Publication Date	January 21, 2010
JEL code(s)	C01 Econometrics C82 Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Keywords	database, Euro area, real-time and revisions

Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence Based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach

Series Number:	ECB Working Paper No 1118
Authors:	Jacopo Cimadomo European Central Bank
Publication Date	November 1, 2009
JEL code(s)	E62 Fiscal Policy
Keywords	cyclical sensitivity, Discretionary fiscal policies, ESCB disaggregated framework, government revenues, legislation changes, narrative approach

A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004

Series Number:	EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 49/2009
Authors:	Szilard Benk Magyar Nemzeti Bank Max Gillman Central European University Michal Kejak CERGE-EI
Publication Date	November 1, 2009
JEL code(s)	E13 General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Keywords	business cycle, credit shocks, velocity and volatility

A Defence of the FOMC

Series Number:	EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 47/2009
Authors:	Martin Ellison University of Oxford Thomas Sargent New York University and Hoover Institution
Publication Date	October 1, 2009
JEL code(s)	C53 Forecasting and Other Model Applications E52 Monetary Policy E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Keywords	forecasting, monetary policy, robustness

GDP Growth Predictions through the Yield Spread. Time-Variation and Structural Breaks

Authors:	Pierangelo De Pace Pomona College
Publication Date	September 1, 2009
JEL code(s)	C22 Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models C32 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models C53 Forecasting and Other Model Applications E37 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation E43 Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates E47 Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation
Keywords	real-time data, structural breaks, Term Spread, TVP Models

Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real-Time Data are Available

Series Number:	EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 44/2009
Authors:	Kevin Lee University of Leicester, UK Nils Olekalns University of Melbourne Kalvinder K. Shields University of Melbourne
Publication Date	September 1, 2009
JEL code(s)	E52 Monetary Policy E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Keywords	business cycles, nowcasting, real-time data and structural modelling

The Implementation of SNB Monetary Policy

Authors:	Thomas Jordan Swiss National Bank Angelo Ranaldo Swiss National Bank Paul Söderlind University of St Gallen
Publication Date	August 1, 2009
JEL code(s)	G15 International Financial Markets
Keywords	Implementation of monetary policy; Libor; repo; Swiss franc money market; regime switching model.

Learning and the Great Moderation

Series Number:	EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 43/2009
Authors:	James Bullard Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Aarti Singh University of Sydney
Publication Date	August 1, 2009
Keywords	Bayesian learning, business cycles, information and regimeswitching

Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy

Series Number:	EABCN/CEPR Discussion Paper 42/2009
Authors:	Olivier Darné University of nantes Laurent Ferrara Banque de France
Publication Date	July 1, 2009
JEL code(s)	C22 Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models C52 Model Evaluation and Selection E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Keywords	Acceleration cycle, business surveys, dating chronology, euro area and turning point indicator