Members Research Papers

Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature

JEL codes: 
E62, H60, H68
Version Date: 
Jul 2011
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A revisit on the role of macro imbalances in the US recession of 2007-2009

JEL codes: 
E30, E59, E62
Version Date: 
Jun 2011
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

The present study is an attempt to revisit the evidences of a very recent study of Paul (2010) on the role of macro imbalances in the US recession of 2007-09. Contrary to Paul (2010) who finds that great recession was due to, particularly, twin deficits, I found central cause of the problem was prolonged fiscal deficit.

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The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy

JEL codes: 
C32, E32, F36
Version Date: 
Jun 2011
Abstract: 

This paper provides an empirical investigation of both the within-US and international channels of transmission of macroeconomic and financial shocks by means of a 50-country macroeconometric model (estimated over the 1980-2009 period), including measures of excess liquidity and financial fragility, specifically designed in order to evaluate the relevance of the boom-bust credit cycle view put

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Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

JEL codes: 
C32, E30, E44, E51, E52
Version Date: 
Apr 2011
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

I estimate the dynamic effects of respectively traditional interest rate
innovations and unconventional monetary policy actions on the Euro area
economy. The results show that the Eurosystem can stimulate the economy
beyond the policy rate by increasing the size of its balance sheet. The ultimate
consequences on output and consumer prices are however more sluggish

Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880

JEL codes: 
N10
Version Date: 
Apr 2011
Abstract: 

This paper studies the international business cycle behaviour across 25 advanced and emerging market economies for which 125 years of annual
GDP data are available. The picture that emerges is more fragmented than the one drawn by studies that focused on a narrower set of advanced market

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Currency Union, Free-Trade Areas, and Business Cycle Synchronization

JEL codes: 
C12, C13, C14, C15, C32, E32, F15
Version Date: 
Mar 2011
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

Since the 1970s the characteristics of international business cycles have changed and deeper economic integration has modified the features of cross-country comovement. We formally test for correlation shifts in measures of real economic activity and economic/financial integration.

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Convergence of Euro Area Inflation Rates

JEL codes: 
C32, E31
Version Date: 
Mar 2011
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