E32

Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Similarities and Convergence in G7 Cycles

JEL codes: 
C11, E32
Version Date: 
Aug 2004
Abstract: 

This Paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panel VAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences. We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role.

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What Caused the Early Millennium Slowdown? Evidence Based on Vector Autoregressions

JEL codes: 
C32, E32
Version Date: 
Sep 2003
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

This Paper uses a simple VAR for the industrialized world (aggregate of 17 countries), the US and the euro area to analyse the underlying shocks of the recent slowdown, i.e. supply, demand, monetary policy and oil price shocks. The results of two identification strategies are compared.

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Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU

JEL codes: 
E32, F41
Version Date: 
Jul 2005
Abstract: 

This paper analyses the synchronization of business cycles between new and old EU members using various measures. The main findings are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved a high degree of synchronization for GDP, industry and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization.

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