real-time data

GDP Growth Predictions through the Yield Spread. Time-Variation and Structural Breaks

JEL codes: 
C22, C32, C53, E37, E43, E47
Version Date: 
Feb 2011
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

We use TVP models and real-time data to describe the evolution of the leading properties of the yield spread for output growth in five European economies and in the US over the last decades and until the third quarter of 2010.

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Fiscal Policy in Real Time

JEL codes: 
C23, E30, E62, H30, H60
Version Date: 
May 2008
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

This paper argues that any assessment on the intentional stance of fiscal policy should be
based upon all the information available to policymakers at the time of fiscal planning. In
particular, real-time data on the discretionary fiscal policy "instrument", the structural
primary balance, should be used in the estimation of fiscal policy reaction functions. In

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Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved

JEL codes: 
C22, C53, C82
Version Date: 
Sep 2005
Abstract: 

We document the empirical properties of revisions to major macroeconomic variables in the United States. Our findings suggest that they do not satisfy simple desirable statistical properties. In particular, we find that these revisions do not have a zero mean, which indicates that the initial announcements by statistical agencies are biased.

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Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy

JEL codes: 
C32, E37
Version Date: 
Sep 2005
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

This paper describes a method for calculating daily real-time estimates of the current state of the US economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled US macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other complications in the data.

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