TVP Models

GDP Growth Predictions through the Yield Spread. Time-Variation and Structural Breaks

JEL codes: 
C22, C32, C53, E37, E43, E47
Version Date: 
Feb 2011

We use TVP models and real-time data to describe the evolution of the leading properties of the yield spread for output growth in five European economies and in the US over the last decades and until the third quarter of 2010.

Report file: 
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