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5TH WORKSHOP EURO AREA BUSINESS CYCLE NETWORK (EABCN) |
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Brussels, 13-14 June 2005, hosted by the National Bank of Belgium
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Organizers:
Domenico Giannone (ECARES-ULB), Jerome Henry (European Central Bank) and Rafael Wouters (NBB) |
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Monday 13 June |
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| 10.00-11.00 | Welcome Coffee |
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Session 1: Review of the Literature
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| 11.00-11.20 | The Research Frontier Dean Croushore (University of Richmond) (see presentation) |
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Session 2: News
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| 11.20-11.40 | Where are we now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro-Economy Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University) (see presentation) |
| 11.40-12.00 | News Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles) Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank, Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR) Dave Small (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) |
| 12.00-12.15 | Discussant Athanasios Orphanides (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and CEPR) (see discussion notes) |
| 12.15-12.30 | Discussant Nigel Pain (OECD) (see presentation) |
| 12.30-12.45 | General Discussion |
| 12.45-14.00 | Lunch |
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Session 3: Available Real-Time Databases and Applications
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| 14.00-14.15 | Revisions of Quarterly National Accounts and Real-Time Assessment of GDP Daniel Grenouilleau (European Commission) (see presentation) |
| 14.15-14.30 | An Example of a Real-Time Database for the Euro Area Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles) Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank) Magdalena Lalik (European Central Bank) |
| 14.30-14.45 | Building a Real-Time Database for GDP(E) Colin Ellis (Bank of England) (see presentation) |
| 14.45-15.00 | Building a Real-Time Database for Germany Thomas Knetsch (Deutsche Bundesbank) (see presentation) |
| 15.00-15.15 | Revisions to Quarterly GDP Estimates: A View from the OECD Database Tommaso Di Fonzo (OECD and Università degli Studi di Padova) Richard McKenzie (OECD) (see presentation) |
| 15.15-15.30 | On the Predictability of GDP Data Revisions in the Netherlands Ard Den Reijer (De Nederlandsche Bank) (see presentation) |
| 15.30-15.45 | Analyzing the Quality of Selected Finnish Macro Series Samu Kurri (Bank of Finland) (see presentation) |
| 15.45-16.15 | General Discussion |
| 16.00-16.15 | Coffee |
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Session 4: RTDB EABCN Project
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| 16.15-16.30 | Survey and General Results Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles) Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank) |
| 16.30-17.30 | Roundtable on Data Availability and Data Collection |
| 17.30-18.15 | General discussion on the next steps |
| Tuesday 14 June | |
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Session 1: Forecast and Real-Time Information 1
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| 09.30-09.50 | Quality of OECD and IMF Forecasts: Some Implications for Decision-Making Heinz Glück (Öesterreichische Nationalbank) (see presentation) Stefan Schleicher (University of Graz) |
| 09.50-10.05 | Discussant Antoni Espasa (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) (see presentation) |
| 10.05-10.25 | Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth: An Assessment of Real-Time Performance based on Vintage Data Marie Diron (European Central Bank) (see presentation) |
| 10.25-10.40 | Discussant Saverio Simonelli (Università di Napoli) (see discussion notes) |
| 10.40-10.55 | General Discussion |
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Session 2: Forecast and Real-Time Information II
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| 11.10-11.30 | Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed from 1996 to 2003 Robert J. Tetlow (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) (see presentation) |
| 11.30-11.45 | Discussant Robert Kollman (University of Paris XII and CEPR) |
| 11.45-12.05 | The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time Athanasios Orphanides (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and CEPR) Simon van Norden (Ecoles des HEC) (see presentation) |
| 12.05-12.20 | Discussant Vincent Labhard (Bank of England) (see discussion notes) |
| 12.20-12.35 | General Discussion |
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Session 3: Properties of Data Revisions
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| 14.00-14.20 | Typical Procedures of Real-Time Short-Run Analyses and their Statistical Foundations: Are the Practitioners right? Roberto Golinelli (Università di Bologna) Giuseppe Parigi (Banca d'Italia) (see presentation) |
| 14.20-14.45 | Data Revisions are not Well-Behaved Boragan Aruoba (University of Maryland) (see presentation) |
| 14.45-15.00 | Discussant 1 Sumru Altug (Koç University and CEPR) |
| 15.00-15.15 | Discussant 2 Gonzalo Camba-Mendez (European Central Bank) (see discussion notes) |
| 15.15-15.30 | General Discussion |
| 16.30-18.00 | Joint BNB Seminar Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge Athanasios Orphanides (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and CEPR) John C. Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) on Learning and Policy (see presentation) |