Programme: 10th EABCN Workshop on Uncertainty over the Business Cycle

Monday 30 March

Session I – Learning 
Chair: Günter Coenen (ECB)

Estimating a Medium-scale DSGE Model with Expectations Based on Small Forecasting Models

Sergey Slobodyan (CERGE-EI)
*Rafael Wouters (Banque Nationale de Belgique) presentation slides

Discussant: Peter Tillmann (University of Bonn)

*William A. Branch (University of California – Irvine) presentation
George W. Evans (University of Oregon)

Discussant:  Klaus Adam (Mannheim University and European Central Bank)

Session II – The Yield Curve
Chair: Günter Coenen (ECB)

Non-Nested Information Sets and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

*Kristoffer Nimark (CREI) presentation

Discussant: Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank)

The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time

Menzie David Chinn (University of Winsconsin, Madison and NBER)
*Kavan Kucko (Federal Reserve Board)

Discussant: Jagjit S. Chadha (University of Cambridge)

Session III - Forecasting and Information
Chair: Frank Smets (ECB)

What Questions are Staff and FOMC Forecasts Supposed to Answer?
*Martin Ellison (Oxford University) presentation
Thomas Sargent (New York University and NBER)

Discussant: James Bullard (FED St Louis)

*Kevin Lee (University of Leicester) 
Nilss Olekalns (Univeristy of Melbourne) 
Kalvinder Shilds (Univeristy of Melbourne)

Discussant: Vincent Labhard (ECB) 

Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of Imperfect Information and Real Time Data

*Stefano Neri (Banca d’Italia)
Tiziano Ropele (Banca d'Italia)

Discussant: Vladislav Damjanovic (University of St Andrews)

Tuesday 31 March

Session IV - Business Cycle Dating
Chair: Andrew Scott (LBS and CEPR)

Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy

Olivier Darné (Banque de France and Universite’ Paris X – Nanterre)
*Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France)

Discussant: Don Harding (Latrobe University)

Jaques Anas  (Coe Rexecode, Paris)
Monica Billio (University of Venice and SSAV)
Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France)
*Gian Luigi Mazzi (EUROSTAT)

Discussant: Michele Lenza (European Central Bank) presentation

Session V – PANEL
        Chair: Andrew Scott (LBS and CEPR)

James Bullard (FED St Louis)
Bob Hall (Stanford University)
Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School) 

Session VI - Uncertainty and the Business Cycle
Chair: Huw Pill (ECB)

Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University)
*Max Floetotto (Stanford University) 
Nir Jaimovich (Stanford University)

Discussant: Frank Smets (ECB and CEPR)

James Bullard (FED ST. Louis)
*Aarti Singh (University of Sydney)

Discussant: Michael McMahon (LSE)