Programme: 10th EABCN Workshop on Uncertainty over the Business Cycle



10th EABCN Workshop on Uncertainty over the Business Cycle

30-31 March 2009
European Central Bank, Frankfurt


Monday 30 March

12:00 – 13:00 Registration and Lunch

Session I – Learning 
Chair: Günter Coenen (ECB)

13:00 – 14:30 

Estimating a Medium-scale DSGE Model with Expectations Based on Small Forecasting Models

Sergey Slobodyan (CERGE-EI)
*Rafael Wouters (Banque Nationale de Belgique) presentation slides

Discussant: Peter Tillmann (University of Bonn)

  Learning about Risk and Return: a Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

*William A. Branch (University of California – Irvine) presentation
George W. Evans (University of Oregon)

Discussant:  Klaus Adam (Mannheim University and European Central Bank)

14:30 – 15:00 Break

Session II – The Yield Curve
Chair: Günter Coenen (ECB)

15:00 – 16:30

Non-Nested Information Sets and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

*Kristoffer Nimark (CREI) presentation

Discussant: Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank)


The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time

Menzie David Chinn (University of Winsconsin, Madison and NBER)
*Kavan Kucko (Federal Reserve Board)

Discussant: Jagjit S. Chadha (University of Cambridge)

16:30 – 17:00  Break

Session III - Forecasting and Information
Chair: Frank Smets (ECB)

17:30 - 19:00

What Questions are Staff and FOMC Forecasts Supposed to Answer?
*Martin Ellison (Oxford University) presentation
Thomas Sargent (New York University and NBER)

Discussant: James Bullard (FED St Louis)

  Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available 

*Kevin Lee (University of Leicester) 
Nilss Olekalns (Univeristy of Melbourne) 
Kalvinder Shilds (Univeristy of Melbourne)

Discussant: Vincent Labhard (ECB) 


Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of Imperfect Information and Real Time Data

*Stefano Neri (Banca d’Italia)
Tiziano Ropele (Banca d'Italia)

Discussant: Vladislav Damjanovic (University of St Andrews)

Tuesday 31 March

Session IV - Business Cycle Dating
Chair: Andrew Scott (LBS and CEPR)

9:00 – 10:30

Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy

Olivier Darné (Banque de France and Universite’ Paris X – Nanterre)
*Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France)

Discussant: Don Harding (Latrobe University)

  A System for Dating and Detecting Turning Points in the Euro Area

Jaques Anas  (Coe Rexecode, Paris)
Monica Billio (University of Venice and SSAV)
Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France)
*Gian Luigi Mazzi (EUROSTAT)

Discussant: Michele Lenza (European Central Bank) presentation

10:30 – 11:00 Break

Session V – PANEL
        Chair: Andrew Scott (LBS and CEPR)

11:00 – 13:00 

James Bullard (FED St Louis)
Bob Hall (Stanford University)
Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School) 

13:00 – 14:30 Lunch

Session VI - Uncertainty and the Business Cycle
Chair: Huw Pill (ECB)

14.30 – 16:00  Really Uncertain Business Cycles

Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University)
*Max Floetotto (Stanford University) 
Nir Jaimovich (Stanford University)

Discussant: Frank Smets (ECB and CEPR)

  Learning and the Great Moderation

James Bullard (FED ST. Louis)
*Aarti Singh (University of Sydney)

Discussant: Michael McMahon (LSE) 

Organizers: Andrew Scott (LBS and CEPR)