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Members Research Papers

Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects

JEL codes: 
E30, F00
Keywords: 
business cycles synchronization, Dynamic Factor, kalman filter
Version Date: 
Oct 2003
Abstract: 

This Paper analyses the co-movement in activity, measured by GDP and industrial production, between the G7 countries for the period 1972-2002. For that purpose, a dynamic factor model is estimated using Kalman Filtering techniques.

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What Caused the Early Millennium Slowdown? Evidence Based on Vector Autoregressions

JEL codes: 
C32, E32
Keywords: 
business cycles, vector autoregressions
Version Date: 
Sep 2003
Author/s: 
Gert Peersman
Abstract: 

This Paper uses a simple VAR for the industrialized world (aggregate of 17 countries), the US and the euro area to analyse the underlying shocks of the recent slowdown, i.e. supply, demand, monetary policy and oil price shocks. The results of two identification strategies are compared.

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