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Members Research Papers

Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey of the Literature

JEL codes: 
E62, H60, H68
Version Date: 
Jul 2011
Author/s: 
Jacopo Cimadomo
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A revisit on the role of macro imbalances in the US recession of 2007-2009

JEL codes: 
E30, E59, E62
Keywords: 
Macro imbalances, US recession, Nonlinear Granger causality
Version Date: 
Jun 2011
Author/s: 
Aviral Tiwari
Abstract: 

The present study is an attempt to revisit the evidences of a very recent study of Paul (2010) on the role of macro imbalances in the US recession of 2007-09. Contrary to Paul (2010) who finds that great recession was due to, particularly, twin deficits, I found central cause of the problem was prolonged fiscal deficit.

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Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

JEL codes: 
C32, E30, E44, E51, E52
Keywords: 
SVARs and unconventional monetary policy
Version Date: 
Apr 2011
Author/s: 
Gert Peersman
Abstract: 

I estimate the dynamic effects of respectively traditional interest rate
innovations and unconventional monetary policy actions on the Euro area
economy. The results show that the Eurosystem can stimulate the economy
beyond the policy rate by increasing the size of its balance sheet. The ultimate
consequences on output and consumer prices are however more sluggish

Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880

JEL codes: 
N10
Keywords: 
business cycles, dynamic factor models, Globalization, Integration
Version Date: 
Apr 2011
Author/s: 
Michael Artis, George Chouliarakis
Abstract: 

This paper studies the international business cycle behaviour across 25 advanced and emerging market economies for which 125 years of annual
GDP data are available. The picture that emerges is more fragmented than the one drawn by studies that focused on a narrower set of advanced market

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Currency Union, Free-Trade Areas, and Business Cycle Synchronization

JEL codes: 
C12, C13, C14, C15, C32, E32, F15
Keywords: 
Cycle Synchronization, Hypothesis Testing, Bootstrap Methods
Version Date: 
Mar 2011
Author/s: 
Pierangelo De Pace
Abstract: 

Since the 1970s the characteristics of international business cycles have changed and deeper economic integration has modified the features of cross-country comovement. We formally test for correlation shifts in measures of real economic activity and economic/financial integration.

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Convergence of Euro Area Inflation Rates

JEL codes: 
C32, E31
Keywords: 
inflation rate, Convergence, Euro area
Version Date: 
Mar 2011
Author/s: 
Claude Lopez
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Moonlighting production, tax rates and capital subsidies

JEL codes: 
E22, E26, H25, H26
Keywords: 
informal economy, tax exemptions, capital investment
Version Date: 
Mar 2011
Author/s: 
Bruno Chiarini, Francesco Busato, Elisabetta Marzano
Abstract: 

Informal firms play a crucial role in both developing and developed countries, and there is
evidence of a larger presence of moonlighting firms over ghost firms. The former are firms
that operate simultaneously in the official and unofficial sectors, whereas the ghost firms
undertake their production only underground. In order to deal with this evidence, through an

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