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9th November 2021: Fall 2021 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee has declared that the euro area recession that had started after 2019Q4 has reached its trough in 2020Q2. The two quarters of negative GDP growth in 2020Q4 and 2021Q1 are judged, based on available data, to be part of the unsteady expansion that started after this 2020Q2 trough. A sui generis recovery is following a sui generis recession.  

[ Findings ] / [ Press release ]

29th March 2021: Spring 2021 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated electronically on the 18th of March 2021 to assess the state of the euro area economic activity. According to the Committee, the available data do not allow us to conclude whether the euro area recession that started after the 2019Q4 has ended. 

[ Findings ] / [ Press release ]

29th September 2020: Fall 2020 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee has declared that the euro area expansion that had started in 2013Q2 has reached its peak in 2019Q4. The euro area entered recession in 2020Q1.

[ Findings ] / [ Press release

30th April 2020: Spring 2020 statement on the Committee on the current state of economic activity in the euro area.

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee met electronically on 16 April 2020 to prepare its spring statement on the state of euro area economic activity in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis.
[ Findings ] / [ Press release ]

2nd December 2019: Fall 2019 statement of the Committee on the current state of economic activity in the euro area

The euro area recovery, which started after the last trough in the first quarter of 2013, has markedly slowed down since the fourth quarter of 2017. It is by now, 26 quarters into a weak expansion, the slowest of all euro area recoveries to date - and is currently lagging behind the speed of the US recovery.

[ Findings ] / [ Press release

1st May 2019: The CEPR and EABCN have partnered to jointly support and expand the activities of the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (EABCDC). The Committee will pursue its dating of the troughs and peaks of euro area business cycles but it will also launch a series of research initiatives destined to monitor and better understand aggregate economic developments in the euro area.
 

Upcoming events

  • FINDING THE GAP - Output Gap Measurement in the Euro Area: Conference 17/04/2020, EUI - Florence.
    POSTPONED DUE TO THE COVID-19 CRISIS
    The Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is organizing a conference on potential output and output gap measurement. The workshop is calling for papers that can shed light on how theoretical and statistical concepts of potential output and the output gap relate and how to measure them in practice. Deadline: December 01, 2019

Recent events

  • Euro area sees four years of slow but steady recovery, 7 August 2017.
    The Committee released its findings in August 2017. Its main conclusion is that since the last trough in 2013Q1, the euro area has been recovering at a slow but steady pace. This post-recession recovery is commensurate with that of the US recovery, considering it began later, after the double-dip European recession that followed the global financial crisis.
    [ Findings ] / [ Press release ]