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14th March 2024: March 2023 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic acitivty in the euro area. 

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on 13 March 2024 to assess the state of euro area economic activity, relying on data through the fourth quarter of 2023. GDP growth was a whisper below zero in the last two quarters of 2023. The committee, using a broad array of information, including its output gap measures, does not label the current period as a recession.

[ Findings ] / [ Press Release

10th November 2023: Fall 2023 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area. 

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on 28 October 2023 to assess the state of euro area economic activity, relying on data through the second quarter of 2023—although preliminary data for the third quarter are consistent with the Committee’s findings. GDP in the second quarter of 2023 was a shade above that of the previous quarter which, in turn, was a whisper above the quarter before that.

[ Findings ] / [ Press Release

30th June 2023: Summer 2023 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area. 

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on 30 June 2023 to assess the state of the euro area economic activity, relying on data through the first quarter of 2023. Two quarters of very mildly negative growth has led to talk about a recession. The Committee defines a recession as a significant decline in the level of economic activity, spread across the economy of the euro area, usually visible in two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP, employment and other measures of aggregate economic activity for the euro area as a whole. This is more than two quarters of negative growth. When trend growth is so close to zero, insignificant negative growth rates are to be observed with some regularity and may not by themselves constitute recessions. In this instance, particularly, the labour market is continuing to do well, with employment growing and euro area unemployment at its historically lowest level.

[ Findings ] / [ Press Release ]

27th March 2023: Spring 2023 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area.

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on 13 March 2023 to assess the state of the euro area economic activity, relying on data through the fourth quarter of 2022. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 halted, but did not turn significantly negative, as a large drop in private consumption and investment was offset by a large reduction in imports. There was also robust expansion in employment.

[ Findings ] / [ Press Release ]

27th December 2022: Fall 2022 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area. 

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on 27 December 2022 to assess the state of euro area economic activity, relying on quarterly data through the third quarter of the year. Across euro area countries, some of the dispersion caused by the Covid shock has dissipated but differences in the recovery are still notable.

[ Findings ] / [ Press release ]

24th March 2022: Spring 2022 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on the 14th of March 2022 to assess the state of euro area economic activity. Real GDP returned to its pre-pandemic level in the final quarter of 2021, despite supply constraints, stringent pandemic restrictions due to the third COVID wave and higher energy prices. Investment and private consumption were important components of recovery, as was government consumption.

[ Findings ] / [ Press release ]

9th November 2021: Fall 2021 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee has declared that the euro area recession that had started after 2019Q4 has reached its trough in 2020Q2. The two quarters of negative GDP growth in 2020Q4 and 2021Q1 are judged, based on available data, to be part of the unsteady expansion that started after this 2020Q2 trough. A sui generis recovery is following a sui generis recession.  

[ Findings ] / [ Press release ]

29th March 2021: Spring 2021 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated electronically on the 18th of March 2021 to assess the state of the euro area economic activity. According to the Committee, the available data do not allow us to conclude whether the euro area recession that started after the 2019Q4 has ended. 

[ Findings ] / [ Press release ]

29th September 2020: Fall 2020 statement of the Dating Committee on the current state of the economic activity in the euro area

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee has declared that the euro area expansion that had started in 2013Q2 has reached its peak in 2019Q4. The euro area entered recession in 2020Q1.

[ Findings ] / [ Press release

30th April 2020: Spring 2020 statement on the Committee on the current state of economic activity in the euro area.

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee met electronically on 16 April 2020 to prepare its spring statement on the state of euro area economic activity in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis.
[ Findings ] / [ Press release ]

2nd December 2019: Fall 2019 statement of the Committee on the current state of economic activity in the euro area

The euro area recovery, which started after the last trough in the first quarter of 2013, has markedly slowed down since the fourth quarter of 2017. It is by now, 26 quarters into a weak expansion, the slowest of all euro area recoveries to date - and is currently lagging behind the speed of the US recovery.

[ Findings ] / [ Press release

1st May 2019: The CEPR and EABCN have partnered to jointly support and expand the activities of the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (EABCDC). The Committee will pursue its dating of the troughs and peaks of euro area business cycles but it will also launch a series of research initiatives destined to monitor and better understand aggregate economic developments in the euro area.
 

Upcoming events

  • FINDING THE GAP - Output Gap Measurement in the Euro Area: Conference 17/04/2020, EUI - Florence.
    POSTPONED DUE TO THE COVID-19 CRISIS
    The Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is organizing a conference on potential output and output gap measurement. The workshop is calling for papers that can shed light on how theoretical and statistical concepts of potential output and the output gap relate and how to measure them in practice. Deadline: December 01, 2019

Recent events

  • Euro area sees four years of slow but steady recovery, 7 August 2017.
    The Committee released its findings in August 2017. Its main conclusion is that since the last trough in 2013Q1, the euro area has been recovering at a slow but steady pace. This post-recession recovery is commensurate with that of the US recovery, considering it began later, after the double-dip European recession that followed the global financial crisis.
    [ Findings ] / [ Press release ]