The purpose of the IRFMP is to promote the discussion of innovative research on theoretical and empirical macroeconomic issues with relevance for monetary policy.
The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on 30 June 2023 to assess the state of the euro area economic activity, relying on data through the first quarter of 2023.
Two quarters of very mildly negative growth has led to talk about a recession. The Committee defines a recession as a significant decline in the level of economic activity, spread across the economy of the euro area, usually visible in two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP, employment and other measures of aggregate economic activity for the euro area as a whole. This is more than two quarters of negative growth. When trend growth is so close to zero, insignificant negative growth rates are to be observed with some regularity and may not by themselves constitute recessions. In this instance, particularly, the labour market is continuing to do well, with employment growing and euro area unemployment at its historically lowest level.
For more information, please visit the Dating committee section on the website.