Latest News 

The CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee deliberated on 30 June 2023 to assess the state of the euro area economic activity, relying on data through the first quarter of 2023.

Two quarters of very mildly negative growth has led to talk about a recession. The Committee defines a recession as a significant decline in the level of economic activity, spread across the economy of the euro area, usually visible in two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP, employment and other measures of aggregate economic activity for the euro area as a whole. This is more than two quarters of negative growth. When trend growth is so close to zero, insignificant negative growth rates are to be observed with some regularity and may not by themselves constitute recessions. In this instance, particularly, the labour market is continuing to do well, with employment growing and euro area unemployment at its historically lowest level.

For more information, please visit the Dating committee section on the website

Upcoming Events

Conference
16/04/2024 to 17/04/2024
Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.

The purpose of the IRFMP is to promote the discussion of innovative research on theoretical and empirical macroeconomic issues with relevance for monetary policy.

Deadline: December 15, 2023
Training School
10/06/2024 to 12/06/2024
Mannheim University

Christian Wolf (MIT) will give an EABCN Training School on “Empirical Methods for Business-Cycle Analysis” on June 10-12, 2024. This will be an on-site event in Mannheim. More details coming soon. 

Deadline: February 29, 2024

Recent Events

Conference
23/09/2023
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

The conference covers a broad range of themes around empirical methods for central banking. It will bring together recent contributions in this area of research, including studies with a strong theoretical basis and empirical papers.

A non-exclusive list of examples of relevant topics includes:
• Theoretical Advances on Local Projections
• Empirical Applications of Local Projections
• Local Projections in Central Banking
• Empirical Analyses in monetary and fiscal policy

Òscar Jordà (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and CEPR) and Sílvia Gonçalves (McGill University) are confirmed invited speakers.

June 30, 2023
Training School
20/09/2023 to 22/09/2023
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

 Òscar Jordà (SF-FED) will teach an in person three-day course entitled “Analysis of macroeconomics data using local projections”. 

July 14, 2023
Training School
04/09/2023 to 06/09/2023
National Bank of Belgium

Professors Franck Portier (University College London and CEPR) will teach an in person three-day course entitled “The macroeconomics of complementarities”. 

August 07, 2023
Conference
31/08/2023 to 01/09/2023
University of Mannheim, Germany

The conference covers a broad range of themes around monetary and macro-finance topics. It will bring together recent contributions in this area of research, including studies with a strong theoretical basis and empirical papers. A non-exclusive list of examples of relevant topics includes:
▪ High inflation and its consequences
▪ Supply-side disturbances and structural change
▪ Financial stability and international capital markets
▪ Digital assets and the unit of account role of money
▪ Monetary and fiscal interactions with high public debt levels
▪ The role of firm, product and consumer heterogeneity
▪ The role of expectations and communication
Markus Brunnermeier (Princeton University and CEPR) and Christian Wolf (MIT) are confirmed invited speakers, and we welcome further relevant submissions.

April 20, 2023
Training School
08/05/2023 to 10/05/2023
Banco de Portugal

Professor David Berger (Duke University) will teach a three-day course titled  “Housing and the Macroeconomy”. The training school will take place in person at the Banco de Portugal on May 8-10, 2023. 

 

March 17, 2023
Conference
25/11/2022
Online

Many central banks in emerging economies have recently been adopting inflation-targeting regimes to steer inflation towards a target, thus reducing inflation volatility and ensuring macroeconomic stabilization, especially at times of adverse shocks. Although emerging markets differ substantially in terms of inflation targeting policy rules and parameters, operational design and policy tools, the empirical evidence seems to broadly suggest that inflation targeting is effective even in volatile and vulnerable macroeconomic environments. However, the uneven recovery in demand and supply following recent events, such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, may generate novel challenges for central banks and governments: How anchored are inflation expectations in this new environment? For how long can central banks rely on inflation anchoring? How to phase out ultra-cheap money in an increasingly fragile real and financial sector? How to choose between risks of over-tightening versus under-tightening? Is an inflation targeting framework useful for tackling these issues?

program

 

November 08, 2022