business cycle

BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: THE EFFECT OF THE COMMON CURRENCY

JEL codes: 
E32, E42, E52
Version Date: 
Apr 2013
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

In this paper, I analyse the synchronization of business cycles within the E.U., as this is an important ingredient for the implementation of a successful monetary policy. The business cycles of twelve E.U. countries and two sub-groups of countries are extracted for the period 1989Q1-2010Q2.

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MACRO-FINANCIAL LINKAGES: EVIDENCE FROM COUNTRYSPECIFIC VARS

JEL codes: 
A14
Version Date: 
Mar 2012
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

This paper estimates the contribution of financial shocks to fluctuations in the
real economy by augmenting the standard macroeconomic vector
autoregression (VAR) with five financial variables (real stock prices, real
house prices, term spread, loans-to-GDP ratio and loans-to-deposits ratio).

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A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004

JEL codes: 
E13, E32, E44
Version Date: 
Oct 2009
Author/s: 
Abstract: 

The paper shows that US GDP velocity of M1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1.25% per year upward trend, during the 1919-2004 period. It explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a DSGE model and annual time series data (Ingram et al., 1994).

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Similarities and Convergence in G7 Cycles

JEL codes: 
C11, E32
Version Date: 
Aug 2004
Abstract: 

This Paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panel VAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences. We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role.

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