Energy and Commodity Prices: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Implications
by Hilde C. Bjørnland
(Professor of Economics, BI Norwegian Business School; Director, CAMP Research Centre)
General Description
We are pleased to announce details of the latest EABCN Training School; a three-day course entitled “Energy and Commodity Prices: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Implications”. Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland (BI Norwegian Business School; Director, CAMP Research Centre) will teach the course.
Practical sessoins are chaired by Helene O. Kalstad (PhD candidate, BI Norwegian Business School).
It is primarily aimed at participants in the Euro Area Business Cycle Network but applications will also be considered from doctoral students, post-doctoral researchers and economists working in central banks and government institutions outside of the network, as well as commercial organisations (fees are applicable for non-network non-academic organisations).
Tentative course outline
Energy and commodity prices are a key source of macroeconomic fluctuations and inflationary pressures, with first-order implications for the design and conduct of monetary policy. This course provides an empirically oriented treatment of recent developments in the analysis of energy price dynamics and their interaction with the macroeconomy, with a focus on structural identification, distributional analysis, forecasting, and policy-relevant interpretation using econometric tools widely employed in central banks. Morning lectures will emphasize models and empirical methodologies, while afternoon practice sessions will offer hands-on illustrations using Matlab code.
The course is divided into three lecture sessions, each followed by a practice session.
Day 1 - Monday, 27 April 2026 — Energy Prices, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Structural Identification
The first day focuses on the identification of energy price shocks and their macroeconomic effects. After a brief overview of energy markets, the lectures emphasize structural VAR frameworks used to disentangle supply-, demand-, and energy shocks, and to assess their dynamic effects on output and inflation. Particular attention is given to various identification strategies and the interpretation of impulse responses in a policy context.
The practical session covers the construction of energy-macro datasets and the estimation of SVAR models, with a focus on implementing and interpreting alternative identification schemes.
Day 2 - Tuesday, 28 April 2026 — Energy Prices, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy
The second day examines the role of energy prices in inflation dynamics and expectation formation, and their implications for monetary policy. Topics include energy price pass-through to inflation, the interaction between energy price shocks and inflation expectations, and the challenges these dynamics pose for monetary policy design and communication.
The practical session applies these tools to euro-area data, focusing on oil-macro models augmented with measures of inflation expectations and on policy-relevant scenario analysis.
Day 3 - Wednesday 29 April 2026 — Distributional Dynamics and Risk in Energy Price Fluctuations
The final day focuses on distributional aspects of energy price dynamics that are not captured by mean-based models. Topics include asymmetries, tail risks, and nonlinearities in energy price fluctuations, and their implications for empirical analysis and forecasting. The lectures introduce distributional and high-dimensional time-series approaches, such as functional VAR frameworks, that allow the determinants and dynamics of energy prices to vary across different parts of the conditional distribution and across horizons.
The practical session is devoted to estimating distributional time-series models, and evaluating downside and upside risks in energy price movements.
Practice sessions
For practice sessions, participants need to bring their own laptop computer.
Prerequisites and required readings
The course will assume basic familiarity with time series methods and vector autoregressions.
About the Instructor
Hilde C. Bjørnland is Professor of Economics at BI Norwegian Business School. She holds a Master of Science in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from London School of Economics, and a PhD (Dr.Polit) in Economics from the University of Oslo. She was awarded His Majesty, The King of Norway’s Gold medal for the Ph.D. thesis in social Sciences. For the period 2026-29, Bjørnland is appointed external member on the Committee of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability at the Norwegian Central Bank.
Administrative Information
We ask that you send a current version of your CV. PhD students must also specify in which way the school will be useful for their current research (max 300 words).
The course will take place in Vietri sul Mare, Salerno, Italy. More information about logistics will be circulated closer to the date.
Participants will be invited to make their own arrangements regarding their travel, accommodation and meals. Further information about hotel options will be available to successful applicants.
Participants from non-academic institutions where the employer is not a member of the EABCN network are charged a course fee of EUR2500.
Applications closed 8pm GMT, Monday 9 Ferbuary 2026
If you have any queries about this event please contact Despoina Chatzilari, Senior Events Officer for assistance.