Dating Business Cycles

The Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee (EABCDC) was founded in 2003 by CEPR under the initiative of Lucrezia Reichlin to establish the chronology of recessions and expansions of the eleven-original euro-area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998, and of the entire euro area from 1999 onwards.

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Dating activities and bi-annual statements on the state of euro area economic activity are conducted in total independence of EABCN. Research initiatives launched pursued by the Committee are subject to the approval and evaluation of the EABCN Scientific Committee.

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Latest Committee announcements

Methodology

METHODOLOGY

The Committee defines a recession as “a significant, broad-based decline in the level of economic activity, usually visible in two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP, employment and other measures of aggregate activity for the euro area as a whole."

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Members

The Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee is composed of five CEPR researchers. The chair of the Committee is named by the President of CEPR and the chair of the EABCN Scientific Committee, while remaining members are chosen by the President of CEPR, the chair of the Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee, and the chair and vice-chair of the EABCN Scientific Committee.

Professor Refet Gürkaynak

Refet S. Gürkaynak is Professor of Economics at Bilkent University and a Research Fellow of the Center for Economic Policy Research, where he is the director of the Monetary Economic and Fluctuations Program. He has a BA from Bilkent and a PhD from Princeton Universities, both in Economics. Prior to his current position he was an Economist at the Monetary Affairs Division of the Federal Reserve… (read more...)

Professor Giovanni Ricco

Associate Professor

Giovani Ricco is Professor of Economics at the Ecole Polytechnique and at the University of Warwick, a Chercheur Associa at OFCE-SciencesPo, and a CEPR Research Fellow. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the London Business School and a Ph.D. in Physics from the University of Pisa. His main research interests lie in the fields of empirical macroeconomics and time-series econometrics.

Professor Silvana Tenreyro

Professor, Department of Economics

Silvana Tenreyro, CBE, is Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, Fellow of the British Academy and Fellow of the Econometric Society. She is a former External Member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, and former President of the European Economic Association (EEA). Currently, she serves as Director of the CEPR International Finance and Macroeconomics Programme… (read more...)

Professor Evi Pappa

Evi Pappa is currently a Full Professor at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. She has also held positions at the European University Institute, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, the University of Bern, Bocconi University, and the London School of Economics. She is a Research Affiliate at CEPR (International Macroeconomics Program) and an Associate Editor for the Economic Journal.  Her research… (read more...)

Professor John Fernald

John Fernald is the Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and a professor of economics at INSEAD. He is also a senior research adviser for international economics at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (on leave after August 2017). At INSEAD, Mr. Fernald teaches the macroeconomics core course in the MBA program and presents on the global macroeconomic… (read more...)