Inflation Targeting in a World of Large and Persistent Shocks

Many central banks in emerging economies have recently been adopting inflation-targeting regimes to steer inflation towards a target, thus reducing inflation volatility and ensuring macroeconomic stabilization, especially at times of adverse shocks. Although emerging markets differ substantially in terms of inflation targeting policy rules and parameters, operational design and policy tools, the empirical evidence seems to broadly suggest that inflation targeting is effective even in volatile and vulnerable macroeconomic environments. However, the uneven recovery in demand and supply following recent events, such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, may generate novel challenges for central banks and governments: How anchored are inflation expectations in this new environment? For how long can central banks rely on inflation anchoring? How to phase out ultra-cheap money in an increasingly fragile real and financial sector? How to choose between risks of over-tightening versus under-tightening? Is an inflation targeting framework useful for tackling these issues?

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