6th Workshop on Forecasting TechniquesForecasting, Real time and Survey data5-6 March 2010
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Eurotower, 2nd floor, room CIV
Frankfurt am Main
Sponsored by the European Central Bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Euro Area Business Cyle Network (EABCN)
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Programme |
Friday 5 March |
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08.30 a.m. - 9 a.m. |
Registration |
9 a.m. - 9.10 a.m. | Welcome H. Herrmann (Deustche Bundesbank |
9.10 a.m. - 10 a.m. |
Keynote Speaker |
Session 1 - Chair: H. Herrmann (Deutsche Bundesbank)
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10 a.m. - 10.50 a.m. | Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how? E. Ghysels (University of North Carolina) Discussant: M. Marellino (European University Institute) |
10.50 a.m. - 11.10 a.m. |
Coffee break |
11.10 a.m -12 p.m. |
Why do certain macroeconomic news announcements have a big impact on asset prices? |
12 p.m. - 12.50 p.m. |
Concensus forecasts and inefficient information aggregation |
12.50 p.m. 2 p.m - 2.50 p.m. |
Buffet Lunch (Foyer CIV) Keynote speaker |
Session 2 - Chair: S.J. Koopman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
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2.50 p.m. - 3.40 p.m. |
Expectation shocks and learning as drivers of the business cycle |
3.40 p.m. - 4 p.m. | Coffee break |
4 p.m. - 4.50 p.m. |
Evaluating real-time forecasts with an informative democratic prior |
4.50 p.m. - 5.40 p.m. |
Scoring rules and survey density forecasts |
8 p.m. |
Conference Dinner at Restaurant Opéra, Alte Oper |
Saturday 6 March |
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09.30 a.m. - 10.20 a.m. |
Keynote speaker M.Watson (Princeton University) |
Session 3 - Chair: G. Kenny (European Central Bank) |
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10.20 a.m. - 11.10 a.m. |
Real-time density forecasts from VARs with stochastic volitality T. Clark (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) |
10.10 a.m. - 11.30 a.m. | Coffee break |
11.30 a.m - 12.20 p.m. |
Conditional forecasts in DSGE models J. Maih (Norges Bank) |
12.20 p.m. |
Buffet Lunch (Foyer CIV) |
1.30 p.m. - 2.20 p.m. |
Keynote speaker L.Reichlin (London Business School) |
Session 4 - Chair: H. Pill (European Central Bank)
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2.20 p.m. - 3.10 p.m. |
Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates W. Wei (Federal Reserve Board) |
3.10 p.m. - 3.30 p.m. | Coffee break |
3.30 p.m. - 4.20 p.m. |
Measuring output gap uncertainty J. Mitchell (National Institute of Economic and Social Research) |
4.20 p.m. - 4.30 p.m. |
Concluding remarks H. Pill (European Central Bank) |